GroupM Forecasts Strong 5.7% Growth in Canada's Ad Revenue

Introduction:

GroupM, the media investment group under WPP, has recently unveiled its 2023 global end-of-year forecast, bringing promising news for Canada's advertising landscape. The eagerly anticipated "This Year, Next Year" (TYNY) report sheds light on the projections for 2024, with ad revenue in Canada set to experience a notable surge of 5.7%.

Domestic Growth and Global Outlook:

Intriguingly, the report anticipates a 4% growth in domestic ad revenue for the current year, followed by a commendable 5.7% projection for the subsequent year. However, on a global scale, the growth trajectory is expected to decelerate slightly, with a dip from 5.8% in 2023 to 5.3% in the following year. Despite this, mid-single digit growth is forecasted to persist through 2028.

TYNY Report Insights:

GroupM's TYNY report delves into the comprehensive assessment of media owners globally. Beyond merely focusing on advertising sellers, the report encompasses the perspectives of the largest ad buyers. Utilizing data from public filings and across the GroupM network, it analyzes how economic and consumer factors are likely to impact changes in advertising investment.

Shifts in Market Rankings:

A notable revelation from the December forecast is the shift in market rankings compared to June. The U.S. and China maintain their dominance as the top two markets in terms of ad revenue. Meanwhile, Canada, positioned at number nine, is expected to rise unless U.S. political ad revenue is considered separately, potentially displacing Australia for the tenth spot.

Canada's Fastest Growing Segment - AVOD:

Lindsey Talbot, Chief Investment Officer for GroupM Canada, highlights the acceleration of Ad-Supported Video on Demand (AVOD) as Canada's fastest-growing segment. With the introduction of ad-supported platforms like Crave TV, Disney+, and upcoming ads on Prime Video in Q1 2024, advertisers now have premium opportunities in the connected TV space.

Global Media Trends:

The report offers insights into global media trends, indicating that pure play digital is set to grow by 9.2% globally this year, surpassing the June forecast. However, digital growth is expected to taper off to 7.3% next year. Digital's share of global ad revenue is predicted to reach 69.4% in 2023 and escalate to 75.5% by 2028.

Outlook on Other Advertising Mediums:

Television, including Connected TV (CTV), is projected to decline to 17.9% of total global ad revenue in 2023. Total TV ad revenue is expected to remain stagnant over the next five years, growing by a mere 1.1% annually. Out-of-home (OOH) ad revenue is forecasted to grow by 10.3% in 2023, with Digital OOH expected to account for $14.2 billion USD worldwide by 2024.

Audio Advertising Landscape:

Audio ad revenue, encompassing streaming audio, is projected to total USD$26.4 billion globally this year, with a slight decline from 2022. Streaming audio, however, is anticipated to experience a five-year compound annual growth rate of 6.5%, while terrestrial audio faces a 3.1% annual decline over the same period.

Conclusion:

As GroupM paints a positive picture for Canada's ad revenue in 2024, advertisers and stakeholders can leverage these insights to navigate the evolving landscape. The TYNY report serves as a valuable resource, offering a comprehensive overview of global and domestic trends that will shape the advertising industry in the coming years.